An investigation of regional infant mortality trends in New Zealand, 1873-1940 Ekaterina Sadetskaya and Les Oxley

From as early as the middle of the nineteenth century until the 1930’s , New Zealand’s infant mortality was one of the lowest in the World. The unique background conditions of New Zealand determined some of the initial advantage in the survivorship of infants in the first year of life relative to other European countries. This advantage then persisted into the twentieth century. The nature and causes of epidemiological transition and mortality decline (in general) in New Zealand have been extensively analyzed in the demographic literature ((e.g. Pool, I., Cheung, P., (2003), Pool, I., Cheung, J., Amey, B., (2009)). In this paper, however, we examine the effects of socio-economic and demographic variables on infant mortality decline, by testing (using unobserved components models for univariate time-series, and SEM for pooled time-series) some of the hypotheses put forward in the literature using new time series data (1873-1940) from the four main provincial districts. Essentially, the results recognize the differential importance of socio-economic factors on infant mortality in light of demographic transition in New Zealand. This paper contributes to a much broader understanding of the underlying mechanisms of infant mortality decline in New Zealand during the late 19 – mid 20 centuries.